Murray has breezed through to the last four and after losing his opening set of the tournament to Ryan Harrison he has reeled off 14 straight sets, never losing more than four games in any one of them (Andy Murray 15/8 to beat Novak Djokovic). This will be his first real test of the tournament and he will be hoping the ease of his earlier rounds will not make him rusty coming into a match where he is undoubtedly going to be put under some real pressure.

They have met 10 times before on tour with Djokovic winning on six occasions. However, Murray will take motivation from the fact that he has won four of their last six meetings, including the last time they met in the final of Cincinnati last year. Their only ever meeting in a Grand Slam came in last year’s final here in Melbourne where Murray just didn’t show up and couldn’t handle the Serbian’s outstanding baseline play, losing convincingly, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 (Djokovic 7/4 to win 3-0).

Betting Tips

Novak seems to have the indian sign over Murray when it comes to these occasions and I can see no other result than the Serbian progressing to the final to set up another meeting with Rafael Nadal, heavy hitters can pile into the 2/5 on Djokovic to win the match, punters seeking more value can back Novak to win 3-0 at 9/4, the same scoreline he beat Murray by last year here in the final.

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The Swiss master has been on fire in this tournament, with many saying this is Federer back to his top level of play. I agree with that, and it’s been a pleasure watching him through the last ten days or so. He’s swept aside every opponent in straight sets, including an obscenely good display in the quarter finals against Juan Martín del Potro.

Rafa has spent a lot more time on court than Federer en route to this semi-final, not least a 4h15m match against Tomáš Berdych in the quarter finals. He only has one day off to recover from that, which might take it’s toll if this becomes a long encounter. He did only lose one set in that match though, and that’s the only set he’s dropped thus far.

Head to Head Record

The overall head to head between the two stands at 17-9 in favour of Nadal. Taking out clashes on clay (largely irrelevant here) and the head to head stands at 7-5 in favour of Federer. On hard courts, as in Melbourne, Federer leads 5-3. Last time out, in the World Tour Finals in London, Federer crushed Nadal in straight sets.

Betting Conclusion

Since losing (after having a match point) to Novak Djokovic in the semi-final of last year’s US Open, Federer is on a brilliant 25 match winning run, losing only 7 sets. He’s playing some of his best tennis, and I really think he will have too much for Nadal here. Yes, Nadal will hang in there and will make Roger hit one more ball in every rally, but the Swiss has actually said he’s targeting the number one spot again this year, and he has the bit between his teeth.

Back Federer at 4/6 to win the match, and Federer to win 3-1 at 100/30 – both with Bet365, who will also match your deposit 100% upto a maximum of £200!